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Objective. To determine whether youth with greater exposure to television viewing exhibit higher rates of smoking initiation.

Methods. We used the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, Child Cohort to examine longitudinally the association of television viewing in 1990 among youth ages 10 to 15 years with smoking initiation from 1990-1992. Television viewing was based on the average of youth and parent reports. We used multiple logistic regression, taking into account sampling weights, and controlled for ethnicity; maternal education, IQ, and work; household structure; number of children; household poverty; child gender; and child aptitude test scores.

Results. Among these youth, smoking increased from 4.8% in 1990 to 12.3% in 1992. Controlling for baseline characteristics, youth who watched 5 or more hours of TV per day were 5.99 times more likely to initiate smoking behaviors (95% confidence interval: 1.39-25.71) than those youth who watched <2 hours. Similarly, youth who watched >4 to 5 hours per day were 5.24 times more likely to initiate smoking than youth who watched <2 hours (95% confidence interval: 1.19-23.10).

Conclusions. Television viewing is associated in a dose-response relationship with the initiation of youth smoking. Television viewing should be included in adolescent risk behavior research. Interventions to reduce television viewing may also reduce youth smoking initiation.

METHODS. We adopted a counterfactual approach to estimate weight gains in excess of normal growth and the implicit "energy gap" the daily imbalance between energy intake and expenditure. On the basis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention growth charts, we constructed weight, height, and BMI percentile distributions for cohorts 2 to 4 and 5 to 7 years of age in the 1988–1994 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (N = 5000). Under the counterfactual "normal-growth-only" scenario, we assumed that these percentile distributions remained the same as the cohort aged 10 years. Under this assumption, we projected the weight and height distributions for this cohort at 12 to 14 and 15 to 17 years of age on the basis of their baseline weight-for-age and stature-for-age percentiles. We compared these distributions with those for corresponding age groups in the 1999–2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (N = 3091) ~10 years after the 1988–1994 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We calculated differences between the counterfactual and observed weight distributions and translated this difference into the estimated average energy gap, adjusting for increased total energy expenditure attributable to weight gain. In addition, we estimated the average excess weight accumulated among overweight adolescents in the 1999–2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, validating our counterfactual assumptions by analyzing longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and Bogalusa Heart Study.

RESULTS. Compared with the counterfactual scenario, boys and girls who were aged 2 to 7 in the 1988–1994 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey gained, on average, an excess of 0.43 kg/year over the 10-year period. Assuming that 3500 kcal leads to an average of 1-lb weight gain as fat, our results suggest that a reduction in the energy gap of 110–165 kcal/day could have prevented this increase. Among overweight adolescents aged 12 to 17 in 1999–2002, results indicate an average energy imbalance ranging from 678 to 1017 kcal/day because of an excess of 26.5 kg accumulated over 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS. Quantifying the energy imbalance responsible for recent changes in weight distribution among children can provide salient targets for population intervention. Consistent behavioral changes averaging 110 to 165 kcal/day may be sufficient to counterbalance the energy gap. Changes in excess dietary intake (eg, eliminating one sugar-sweetened beverage at 150 kcal per can) may be easier to attain than increases in physical activity levels (eg, a 30-kg boy replacing sitting for 1.9 hours with 1.9 hours walking for an extra 150 kcal). Youth at higher levels of weight gain will likely need changes in multiple behaviors and environments to close the energy gap.