Search Results

Author: Arkes, Jeremy
Resulting in 11 citations.
1. Arkes, Jeremy
Does the Economy Affect Teenage Substance Use?
Health Economics 16,1 (January 2007): 19-36
Cohort(s): NLSY97
Publisher: Wiley Online
Keyword(s): Alcohol Use; Child Care; Children; Drug Use; Fertility; Modeling, Fixed Effects; Modeling, Logit

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

This research examines how teenage drug and alcohol use responds to changes in the economy. In contrast to the recent literature confirming pro-cyclical alcohol use among adults, this research offers strong evidence that a weaker economy leads to greater teenage marijuana and hard-drug use and some evidence that a weaker economy also leads to higher teenage alcohol use. The findings are based on logistic models with state and year fixed effects, using teenagers from the NLSY-1997. The evidence also indicates that teenagers are more likely to sell drugs in weaker economies. This suggests one mechanism for counter-cyclical drug use--that access to illicit drugs is easier when the economy is weaker. These results also suggest that the strengthening economy in the 1990s mitigated what would otherwise have been much larger increases in teenage drug use.
Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy. "Does the Economy Affect Teenage Substance Use? ." Health Economics 16,1 (January 2007): 19-36 .
2. Arkes, Jeremy
How Does Youth Cigarette Use Respond to Weak Economic Periods? Implications for the Current Economic Crisis
Substance Use and Misuse 47,4 (March 2012): 375-382.
Also: http://informahealthcare.com/doi/abs/10.3109/10826084.2011.631962
Cohort(s): NLSY97
Publisher: Informa Healthcare
Keyword(s): Cigarette Use (see Smoking); Economic Changes/Recession; Modeling, Logit; Smoking (see Cigarette Use)

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

This paper examines whether youth cigarette use increases during weak economic periods (as do youth alcohol and drug use). The data come from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. With repeated measures over the 1997–2006 period, for almost 9,000 individuals, the samples include 30,000+ teenagers (15–19 years) and 30,000+ young adults (20–24 years). Logit models with state and year controls are estimated. The results indicate that teenagers and young adults increase cigarette use when the economy is weaker, implying that the current financial crisis has likely increased youth cigarette use relative to what it would have otherwise been.
Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy. "How Does Youth Cigarette Use Respond to Weak Economic Periods? Implications for the Current Economic Crisis." Substance Use and Misuse 47,4 (March 2012): 375-382.
3. Arkes, Jeremy
How the Economy Affects Teenage Weight
Social Science and Medicine 68,11 (June 2009): 1943-1947.
Also: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953609001877
Cohort(s): NLSY97
Publisher: Elsevier
Keyword(s): Body Mass Index (BMI); Economics, Regional; Gender Differences; Geographical Variation; Modeling, Fixed Effects; Obesity; Teenagers; Unemployment Rate; Weight

Much research has focused on the proximate determinants of weight gain and obesity for adolescents, but not much information has emerged on identifying which adolescents might be at risk or on prevention. This research focuses on a distal determinant of teenage weight gain, namely changes in the economy, which may help identify geographical areas where adolescents may be at risk and may provide insights into the mechanisms by which adolescents gain weight. This study uses a nationally representative sample of individuals, between 15 and 18years old from the 1997 US National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, to estimate a model with state and year fixed effects to examine how within-state changes in the unemployment rate affect four teenage weight outcomes: an age- and gender-standardized percentile in the body-mass-index distribution and indicators for being overweight, obese, and underweight. I found statistically significant estimates, indicating that females gain weight in weaker economic periods and males gain weight in stronger economic periods. Possible causes for the contrasting results across gender include, among other things, differences in the responsiveness of labor market work to the economy and differences in the types of jobs generally occupied by female and male teenagers.
Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy. "How the Economy Affects Teenage Weight." Social Science and Medicine 68,11 (June 2009): 1943-1947.
4. Arkes, Jeremy
Longitudinal Association Between Marital Disruption and Child BMI and Obesity
Obesity 20,8 (August 2012): 1696-1702.
Also: http://www.nature.com/oby/journal/v20/n8/abs/oby201284a.html
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Keyword(s): Body Mass Index (BMI); Child Growth; Child Health; Divorce; Marital Disruption; Obesity; Weight

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

This research examines whether family disruptions (i.e., divorces and separation) contribute to children's weight problems. The sample consists of 7,299 observations for 2,333 children, aged 5–14, over the 1986–2006 period, from a US representative sample from the Child and Young Adult Survey accompanying the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). The study uses individual-fixed-effects models in a longitudinal framework to compare children's BMI and weight problems before and after a disruption. Furthermore, besides doing a before–after comparison for children, the study also estimates the effects at various periods relative to the disruption in order to examine whether children are affected before the disruption and whether any effects change as time passes from the disruption, as some effects may be temporary or slow to develop. Despite having a larger sample than the previous studies, the results provide no evidence that, on average, children's BMI and BMI percentile scores (measured with continuous outcomes) are affected before the disruption, after the disruption, and as time passes from the disruption, relative to a baseline period a few years before the disruption. However, children experiencing a family disruption do have an increased risk of obesity (having a BMI percentile score of 95 or higher) in the two years leading up to the disruption as well as after the disruption, and as time passes from the disruption.
Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy. "Longitudinal Association Between Marital Disruption and Child BMI and Obesity." Obesity 20,8 (August 2012): 1696-1702.
5. Arkes, Jeremy
What Do Educational Credentials Signal and Why Do Employers Value Credentials?
Economics of Education Review 18,1 (February 1999): 133-141.
Also: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272775798000247
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Elsevier
Keyword(s): Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); College Graduates; Educational Aspirations/Expectations; High School; High School Diploma

Examines whether employers can infer information about workers' precollege abilities from acquired college credentials and value attainment of credentials because they signal these abilities. Analysis of 1993 National Longitudinal Study of Youth data reveals that employers value attainment of a bachelor's degree for these reasons. Academic degrees may mark other worthwhile attributes, such as motivation and perseverance. (12 references) (MLH)
Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy. "What Do Educational Credentials Signal and Why Do Employers Value Credentials?" Economics of Education Review 18,1 (February 1999): 133-141.
6. Arkes, Jeremy
Klerman, Jacob Alex
Understanding the Fertility-Economy Link for Teenagers
Presented: Philadelphia, PA, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, March-April 2005
Cohort(s): NLSY97
Publisher: Population Association of America
Keyword(s): Adolescent Fertility; Contraception; Economics of Minorities; Endogeneity; Ethnic Studies; Racial Studies; Sexual Activity; Teenagers

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

During the 1990s, the economy strengthened and teenage fertility and the rate of sexual activity and the lack of contraception decreased sharply. Black female teenagers, who generally experienced greater relative economic gains than white female teenagers, had even greater declines in fertility, the rate of sexual activity, and the lack of contraception. These patterns suggest a potential link between the economy and fertility-related outcomes. This project uses the NLSY-1997 to estimate how changes in the economy affect fertility and its proximate determinants-the rate of sexual activity, contraception use, pregnancies, and abortions-for all teenagers and across race/ethnicity. Relative to previous analyzes, the contributions of our analysis include: (1) using alternative aggregate economic indicators that aren't particular to teenagers (which could be endogenous); (2) using a more recent cohort of teenagers; and (3) performing simulations to calculate how much the economy contributed to changes in teenage fertility-related outcomes.
Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy and Jacob Alex Klerman. "Understanding the Fertility-Economy Link for Teenagers." Presented: Philadelphia, PA, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, March-April 2005.
7. Arkes, Jeremy
Klerman, Jacob Alex
Understanding the Link Between the Economy and Teenage Sexual Behavior and Fertility Outcomes
Journal of Population Economics 22,3 (July 2009): 517-536.
Also: http://www.springerlink.com/content/0717263807272372/
Cohort(s): NLSY97
Publisher: Springer
Keyword(s): Adolescent Fertility; Contraception; Economics of Minorities; Endogeneity; Ethnic Studies; Gender Differences; Racial Studies; Sexual Activity; Teenagers

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

We use individual-level data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and state unemployment rates to examine how the economy affects fertility and its proximate determinants for several groups based on gender, age (15-17 and 18-20 groups), and race/ethnicity. We find that, for 15- to 17-year-old females, several behaviors leading to pregnancies and pregnancies themselves are higher when the unemployment rate is higher, which is consistent with the counter-cyclical fertility patterns for this group. For 18- to 20-year-old males, the results suggested counter-cyclical patterns of fertility behaviors/outcomes for whites, but pro-cyclical patterns for blacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy and Jacob Alex Klerman. "Understanding the Link Between the Economy and Teenage Sexual Behavior and Fertility Outcomes." Journal of Population Economics 22,3 (July 2009): 517-536.
8. Arkes, Jeremy
Shen, Yu-Chu
For Better or For Worse, But How About a Recession?
Working Paper No. 16525. National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2010.
Also: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16525
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Keyword(s): Divorce; Economic Changes/Recession; Marital Instability; Unemployment Rate

In light of the current economic crisis, we estimate hazard models of divorce to determine how state and national unemployment rates affect the likelihood of divorce. With 89,340 observations over the 1978-2006 period for 7633 couples from the 1979 NLSY, we find mixed evidence on whether increases in the unemployment rate lead to overall increases in the likelihood of divorce, which would suggest countercyclical divorce probabilities. However, further analysis reveals that the weak evidence is due to the weak economy increasing the risk of divorce only for couples in years 6 to 10 of marriage. For couples in years 1 to 5 and couples married longer than 10 years, there is no evidence of a pattern between the strength of the economy and divorce probabilities. The estimates are generally stronger in magnitude when using national instead of state unemployment rates.
Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy and Yu-Chu Shen. "For Better or For Worse, But How About a Recession?" Working Paper No. 16525. National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2010.
9. Arkes, Jeremy
Shen, Yu-Chu
For Better or For Worse, But How About a Recession?
Contemporary Economic Policy 32,2 (April 2014): 275-287.
Also: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/coep.12029/abstract
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Western Economic Association International
Keyword(s): Divorce; Economics, Regional; Marital Instability; Modeling, Hazard/Event History/Survival/Duration; Unemployment Rate, Regional

In light of the current economic crisis, we estimate hazard models of divorce to determine how state and national unemployment rates affect the likelihood of a divorce or separation. With data in the United States over the 1978–2008 period from the 1979 NLSY, we find some evidence indicating that a higher unemployment rate increases the risk of a marriage ending for couples in years 6–10 of marriage (suggesting counter-cyclical divorce/separation probabilities) but has no significant effect for couples in years 1–5 of marriage and those married longer than 10 years. The estimates are generally stronger in magnitude when using national instead of state unemployment rates and when considering just divorces rather than the first observed divorce or separation.
Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy and Yu-Chu Shen. "For Better or For Worse, But How About a Recession?" Contemporary Economic Policy 32,2 (April 2014): 275-287.
10. Boynton, Marcella H.
Arkes, Jeremy
Hoyle, Rick H.
Brief Report of a Test of Differential Alcohol Risk Using Sibling Attributions of Paternal Alcoholism
Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs 72,6 (November 2011): 1037-1040.
Also: http://www.jsad.com/jsad/article/Brief_Report_of_a_Test_of_Differential_Alcohol_Risk_Using_Sibling_Attributi/4640.html
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Center of Alcohol Studies, Rutgers University
Keyword(s): Alcohol Use; Fathers; Fathers, Influence; Modeling, Multilevel; Siblings

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Objective: Parental alcoholism is generally found to be a strong predictor of alcohol misuse. Although the majority of siblings agree on the presence of parental alcohol issues, there is a significant minority who do not.

Method: The current study analyzed sibling data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth using multilevel modeling, which accounts for the nested structure of the data. These analyses permitted a test of whether (a) identifying one's father as an alcoholic predicted greater risk of alcohol problems, (b) being from a family whose siblings did not all agree on the presence of paternal alcoholism increased the likelihood of alcohol problems, and (c) risk of alcohol misuse significantly differed among individuals from families in which there was familial disagreement about paternal alcoholism.

Results: Results show that individuals who identified their father as an alcoholic were themselves more likely to have alcohol issues as compared with individuals both within and between families who did not identify their father as an alcoholic. Risk was similar for individuals in families in which there was disagreement about paternal alcoholism compared with individuals from families in which everyone agreed on the presence of paternal alcoholism. Moreover, there was not a significant interaction between paternal alcoholism attributions and familial disagreement.

Conclusions: Findings indicate that in the case of child reports of paternal alcoholism, the increased risk of alcohol problems holds true regardless of the accuracy of an individual's assessment. These results may be not only because of the impact of paternal alcoholism on a person's alcohol misuse but also because of a person's alcohol problems potentially influencing his or her perceptions of familial alcohol-related behaviors.

Bibliography Citation
Boynton, Marcella H., Jeremy Arkes and Rick H. Hoyle. "Brief Report of a Test of Differential Alcohol Risk Using Sibling Attributions of Paternal Alcoholism." Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs 72,6 (November 2011): 1037-1040.
11. Harder, Valerie S.
Morral, Andrew R.
Arkes, Jeremy
Marijuana Use and Depression Among Adults: Testing for Causal Associations
Addiction 101,10 (October 2006): 1463-1472.
Also: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1360-0443.2006.01545.x/abstract
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Wiley Online
Keyword(s): Depression (see also CESD); Drug Use; Self-Reporting; Substance Use; Variables, Independent - Covariate

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Aim: To determine whether marijuana use predicts later development of depression after accounting for differences between users and non-users of marijuana. Design: An ongoing longitudinal survey of 12 686 men and women beginning in 1979. Setting: The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth of 1979, a nationally representative sample from the United States. Participants: A total of 8759 adults (age range 29–37 years) interviewed in 1994 had complete data on past-year marijuana use and current depression. Measurements: Self-reported past-year marijuana use was tested as an independent predictor of later adult depression using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies--Depression questionnaire. Individual's propensity to use marijuana was calculated using over 50 baseline covariates. Findings: Before adjusting for group differences, the odds of current depression among past-year marijuana users is 1.4 times higher (95% CI: 1.1, 1.9) than the odds of depression among the non-using comparison group. After adjustment, the odds of current depression among past-year marijuana users is only 1.1 times higher than the comparison group (95% CI: 0.8, 1.7). Similarly, adjustment eliminates significant associations between marijuana use and depression in four additional analyses: heavy marijuana use as the risk factor, stratifying by either gender or age, and using a 4-year lag-time between marijuana use and depression. Conclusions: After adjusting for differences in baseline risk factors of marijuana use and depression, past-year marijuana use does not significantly predict later development of depression. These findings are discussed in terms of their relevance for understanding possible causal effects of marijuana use on depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Bibliography Citation
Harder, Valerie S., Andrew R. Morral and Jeremy Arkes. "Marijuana Use and Depression Among Adults: Testing for Causal Associations." Addiction 101,10 (October 2006): 1463-1472.