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Author: Schofield, Lynne Steuerle
Resulting in 5 citations.
1. Black, Dan A.
Hsu, Yu-Chieh
Sanders, Seth G.
Schofield, Lynne Steuerle
Taylor, Lowell J.
The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old Age Mortality Estimates
NBER Working Paper No. 23574, National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2017.
Also: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23574
Cohort(s): Older Men
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Keyword(s): Data Quality/Consistency; Ethnic Differences; Hispanics; Mortality; National Health Interview Survey (NHIS); Racial Differences

We examine inferences about old age mortality that arise when researchers use survey data matched to death records. We show that even small rates of failure to match respondents can lead to substantial bias in the measurement of mortality rates at older ages. This type of measurement error is consequential for three strands in the demographic literature: (1) the deceleration in mortality rates at old ages, (2) the black-white mortality crossover, and (3) the relatively low rate of old age mortality among Hispanics--often called the "Hispanic paradox." Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men (NLS-OM) matched to death records in both the U.S. Vital Statistics system and the Social Security Death Index, we demonstrate that even small rates of missing mortality matching plausibly lead to an appearance of mortality deceleration when none exists, and can generate a spurious black-white mortality crossover. We confirm these findings using data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) matched to the U.S. Vital Statistics system, a dataset known as the "gold standard" (Cowper et al., 2002) for estimating age-specific mortality. Moreover, with these data we show that the Hispanic paradox is also plausibly explained by a similar undercount.
Bibliography Citation
Black, Dan A., Yu-Chieh Hsu, Seth G. Sanders, Lynne Steuerle Schofield and Lowell J. Taylor. "The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old Age Mortality Estimates." NBER Working Paper No. 23574, National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2017.
2. Black, Dan A.
Sanders, Seth G.
Schofield, Lynne Steuerle
Taylor, Lowell J.
Regional Differences in the Intergenerational Transmission of Inequality: Evidence from the NLSY
Presented: Atlanta GA, American Economic Association Annual Meeting, January 2019
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79, NLSY79 Young Adult
Publisher: American Economic Association
Keyword(s): Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Cognitive Ability; Geocoded Data; Intergenerational Patterns/Transmission; Mobility; Noncognitive Skills; Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Math); Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Reading); Test Scores/Test theory/IRT

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

In a series of important papers (e.g., Chetty et al., 2014, and Chetty et al., forthcoming), Raj Chetty and coauthors show that there is substantial variation in the geography of intergenerational mobility; children born to parents with moderate income are more upwardly mobile in some places than in others. Chetty and Hendren ascribe a casual role to place‐based factors. In this paper we seek to understand the mechanisms behind this phenomenon by studying intergenerational links in cognitive and non‐cognitive ability--using data elements from mothers in the NLSY79 and their children in the NLSY79‐Child. There are two innovations in our study. First, in analyzing parent‐child links in cognition, we use item response level data collected for the purpose of constructing latent variables (the AFQT, PIAT, etc.), as in Junker et al. (2015). Second, we employ restricted‐use data elements to identify geography, matched to statistics constructed from Census data, and from the data files posted by the "Equality of Opportunity Project" team (Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, and colleagues). The goal is to see if the place‐based upward mobility documented in the work in Chetty and coauthors is driven in part by improved "upward mobility" across generations in cognitive and non‐cognitive ability.
Bibliography Citation
Black, Dan A., Seth G. Sanders, Lynne Steuerle Schofield and Lowell J. Taylor. "Regional Differences in the Intergenerational Transmission of Inequality: Evidence from the NLSY." Presented: Atlanta GA, American Economic Association Annual Meeting, January 2019.
3. Junker, Brian
Schofield, Lynne Steuerle
Taylor, Lowell J.
The Use of Cognitive Ability Measures as Explanatory Variables in Regression Analysis
IZA Journal of Labor Economics 1,4 (October 2012): .
Also: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/2193-8997-1-4
Cohort(s): NLSY97
Publisher: Springer
Keyword(s): Educational Attainment; Modeling, Mixed Effects; Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Math); Racial Differences; Test Scores/Test theory/IRT

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Cognitive ability measures are often taken as explanatory variables in regression analysis, e.g., as a factor affecting a market outcome such as an individual’s wage, or a decision such as an individual’s education acquisition. Cognitive ability is a latent construct; its true value is unobserved. Nonetheless, researchers often assume that a test score, constructed via standard psychometric practice from individuals’ responses to test items, can be safely used in regression analysis. We examine problems that can arise, and suggest that an alternative approach, a “mixed effects structural equations” (MESE) model, may be more appropriate in many circumstances.
Bibliography Citation
Junker, Brian, Lynne Steuerle Schofield and Lowell J. Taylor. "The Use of Cognitive Ability Measures as Explanatory Variables in Regression Analysis." IZA Journal of Labor Economics 1,4 (October 2012): .
4. Schofield, Lynne Steuerle
Correcting for Measurement Error in Latent Variables Used as Predictors
Annals of Applied Statistics 9,4 (December 2015): 2133-2152.
Also: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26977218
Cohort(s): NLSY97
Publisher: Institute of Mathematical Statistics
Keyword(s): College Major/Field of Study/Courses; Methods/Methodology; Modeling, Mixed Effects; Modeling, Structural Equation; Personality/Big Five Factor Model or Traits; Test Scores/Test theory/IRT

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

This paper represents a methodological-substantive synergy. A new model, the Mixed Effects Structural Equations (MESE) model which combines structural equations modeling and item response theory is introduced to attend to measurement error bias when using several latent variables as predictors in generalized linear models. The paper investigates racial and gender disparities in STEM retention in higher education. Using the MESE model with 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data, I find prior mathematics proficiency and personality have been previously underestimated in the STEM retention literature. Pre-college mathematics proficiency and personality explain large portions of the racial and gender gaps. The findings have implications for those who design interventions aimed at increasing the rates of STEM persistence among women and under-represented minorities.
Bibliography Citation
Schofield, Lynne Steuerle. "Correcting for Measurement Error in Latent Variables Used as Predictors." Annals of Applied Statistics 9,4 (December 2015): 2133-2152.
5. Schofield, Lynne Steuerle
Measurement Error in the AFQT in the NLSY79
Economics Letters 123,3 (June 2014): 262-265.
Also: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176514000901
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Elsevier
Keyword(s): Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Test Scores/Test theory/IRT

Many promising efforts in the social sciences aim to measure future outcomes (such as wages or health outcomes) given some base level of human capital or ability. They typically fail to recognize the proxies for human capital are all measured with error, creating bias in regression analysis. Here I show how item level data offers the opportunity to improve a broad range of economic, social and psychometric studies, an opportunity now enhanced significantly by the new release of item response level data for the Armed Forces Qualifying Test in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.
Bibliography Citation
Schofield, Lynne Steuerle. "Measurement Error in the AFQT in the NLSY79." Economics Letters 123,3 (June 2014): 262-265.