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Author: Buddlemeyer, Hielke

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1.	Buddlemeyer, Hielke Troske, Kenneth R. Voicu, Alexandru
1.	Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques Presented: Lisbon, Portugal, European Association of Labour Economists, September 2004. Also: http://gatton.uky.edu/faculty/troske/working_pap/troskevoicu081704.pdf Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: European Association of Labour Economists Keyword(s): Bayesian; Fertility; Heterogeneity; Human Capital; Labor Supply; Markov chain / Markov model; Modeling; Women Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. The above cited pdf does not use the same abstract as the one below, but it is dated one month prior to the above paper presented. Three mechanisms generate the statistical relationship between women's fertility decisions and their level of labor market involvement. Children directly affect women's labor supply by raising the value of non-market options. Having children frequently forces women to temporarily leave the labor market leading to depreciation of their human capital, thus indirectly affecting subsequent labor market decisions. Individual heterogeneity with respect to tastes for market work and family structure induce additional correlation between fertility and participation behavior throughout lifetime. Distinguishing these three effects is important for effective policy design. This paper proposes a model that disentangles the direct, indirect, and unobserved heterogeneity effects, and evaluates their relative importance. Sequential participation decisions for four levels of labor market involvement and fertility decisions are jointly modeled. The estimation is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
	Bibliography Citation Buddlemeyer, Hielke, Kenneth R. Troske and Alexandru Voicu. "Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques." Presented: Lisbon, Portugal, European Association of Labour Economists, September 2004.

2.	Buddlemeyer, Hielke Troske, Kenneth R. Voicu, Alexandru
2.	Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques Working Paper, European Economic Association & Econometric Society, January 30, 2004. Also: http://www.eea-esem.com/papers/eea-esem/2004/1671/BuddelmeyerTroskeVoicu1.pdf Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: European Economic Association & Econometric Society Keyword(s): Bayesian; Childbearing; Fertility; Heterogeneity; Human Capital; Labor Supply; Leave, Family or Maternity/Paternity; Markov chain / Markov model; Modeling, Probit; Women Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Children have both a direct and indirect effect on a women’s supply of labor to the market. The direct effect is a result of children raising the value of non-market option of women thereby reducing their labor supply. The indirect effect derives from the fact that having children frequently forces women to leave the labor market for some period, leading to a fall in their human capital and their market wage, and therefore in their propensity to work in the formal labor market. Distinguishing these two effects is important for effective policy design. This paper proposes a model that disentangles the direct and indirect effect of children on women’s labor force participation, and evaluates their relative importance. Sequential participation decisions for four levels of labor market involvement and fertility decisions are jointly modelled. The estimation is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The indirect effect is more important and grows with the length of the interruption. The direct effect declines with the age of the child.
	Bibliography Citation Buddlemeyer, Hielke, Kenneth R. Troske and Alexandru Voicu. "Joint Estimation of Sequential Labor Force Participation and Fertility Decisions Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques." Working Paper, European Economic Association & Econometric Society, January 30, 2004.

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