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Title: Exploring the Usefulness of a Nonrandom Holdout Sample for Model Validation: Welfare Effects On Female Behavior
Resulting in 1 citation.
1. Keane, Michael P.
Wolpin, Kenneth I.
Exploring the Usefulness of a Nonrandom Holdout Sample for Model Validation: Welfare Effects On Female Behavior
International Economic Review 48,4 (November 2007): 1351-1378.
Also: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2007.00465.x/abstract
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: U.S. International Trade Commission
Keyword(s): Behavior; Welfare; Women

A particularly challenging use of decision-theoretic models in economics is to forecast the impact of large changes in the environment. The problem we explore in this article is how to gain confidence in a model's ability to predict the impact of such large changes. We show that an approach to validation and model selection that includes the choice of a "on random holdout sample," a sample that differs significantly from the estimation sample along the policy dimension that the model is meant to forecast, can be fruitful.
Bibliography Citation
Keane, Michael P. and Kenneth I. Wolpin. "Exploring the Usefulness of a Nonrandom Holdout Sample for Model Validation: Welfare Effects On Female Behavior." International Economic Review 48,4 (November 2007): 1351-1378.