([youth.agedol()] >= 15)

COMMENT: is age of youth on 12/31/96 >= 15

(HAND CARD Q)


Each of the next set of questions will ask you for your best guess at the chance that something will happen in the future. You can think of the PERCENT CHANCE that some event will occur as the number of CHANCES OUT OF 100 that the event will take place.

If you think that something is impossible, you would give it a 0 percent chance; if you think it is certain to happen, give it a 100 percent chance. For things that are possible but unlikely, or likely but not certain, assign them numbers in between 0 and 100.

Just to make sure you're comfortable with this scale, I'd like you to do a practice question, and I'd like you to explain your answer to me and to make an "X" on this scale that corresponds to your answers.

INTERVIEWER: SHOW RESPONDENT CARD $$$ (PERCENT CHANCE SCALE WITH HASHMARKS) AND ASK PRACTICE QUESTION.

Think about [youth.name()] one year from now. The first questions concern what you expect [youth.he/she()] will be doing then, in terms of school and work.

What is the percent chance that [youth.name()] will be a student in a regular school one year from now?

(INTERVIEWER: IF R ASKS WHAT IS MEANT BY REGULAR SCHOOL SAY THAT:
REGULAR SCHOOL IS ONE THAT OFFERS AN ACADEMIC DIPLOMA OR
DEGREE: E.G., ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, HIGH SCHOOL, COLLEGE,
GRADUATE SCHOOL, LAW SCHOOL, OR NURSING PROGRAM LEADING TO
AN RN DEGREE. NOT INCLUDED AS REGULAR SCHOOLS ARE: TRAINING
AT A TECHNICAL INSTITUTE, LICENSE TRADE PROGRAMS, ETC. UNLESS
THE CREDITS OBTAINED ARE TRANSFERRABLE TO A REGULAR SCHOOL
AND COULD COUNT TOWARDS AN ACADEMIC DIPLOMA OR DEGREE.)

If [youth.name()] is in school a year from now, what is the percent chance that [youth.he/she()] will also be working for pay more than 20 hours per week?

(INTERVIEWER: IF R ASKS WHAT IS MEANT BY WORKING SAY: BY WORKING
WE MEAN WORKING FOR PAY FOR AN EMPLOYER OR IN A FAMILY
BUSINESS WHETHER OR NOT YOU ARE PAID, OR WORKING FOR
YOURSELF OR BEING SELF-EMPLOYED.)

The next questions ask about [youth.name()]'s school and work situation at the time of [youth.his/her()] 20th birthday.

What is the percent chance that [youth.he/she()] will have received a high school diploma by the time [youth.he/she()] turns 20?

What is the percent chance that [youth.name()] will serve time in jail or prison between now and when [youth.he/she()] turns 20?

What is the percent chance that [youth.name()] will become the [mother/father()] of a baby sometime between now and when [youth.he/she()] turns 20?

Now think ahead to when [youth.name()] turns 30 years old.

What is the percent chance that [youth.name()] will have a four-year college degree by the time [youth.he/she()] turns 30?

What is the percent chance that [youth.name()] will be working for pay more than 20 hours per week when [youth.he/she()] turns 30?