([age on 12/31/96] >= 15)

COMMENT: Check R's age on 12/31/96 and branch accordingly.

Each of the next set of questions will ask you for your best guess at the chance that something will happen in the future. You can think of the PERCENT CHANCE that some event will occur as the number of CHANCES OUT OF 100 that the event will take place.

If you think that something is impossible, consider it as having a 0 percent chance. If you think the event is possible but unlikely, you might say there is a 3 percent chance or a 15 percent chance. If you think the chance is pretty even, you can say there is a 46 percent chance or perhaps a 52 percent chance. If you think the event is likely, but not certain, you might say there is a 78 percent chance or a 94 percent chance. If you think it is certain to happen, give it a 100 percent chance. Just to make sure that you are comfortable with the scale, I'd like you to do a few practice questions, and explain your answer to me.

What do you think is the percent chance that you will get the flu sometime in the next year?

What do you think is the percent chance that you will eat pizza sometime in the next year?

Think about yourself one year from now. The first questions concern what you expect to be doing then, in terms of school and work.

What is the percent chance that you will be a student in a regular school one year from now?

(INTERVIEWER: IF R ASKS WHAT IS MEANT BY REGULAR SCHOOL SAY THAT: REGULAR SCHOOL IS ONE THAT OFFERS AN ACADEMIC DIPLOMA OR DEGREE: E.G., ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, HIGH SCHOOL, COLLEGE, GRADUATE SCHOOL, LAW SCHOOL, OR NURSING PROGRAM LEADING TO AN RN DEGREE. NOT INCLUDED AS REGULAR SCHOOL ARE: TRAINING AT A TECHNICAL INSTITUTE, LICENSE TRADE PROGRAMS, ETC. UNLESS THE CREDITS OBTAINED ARE TRANSFERRABLE TO A REGULAR SCHOOL AND COULD COUNT TOWARD AN ACADEMIC DIPLOMA OR DEGREE.)

If you are in school a year from now, what is the percent chance that you will also be working for pay more than 20 hours per week?

(INTERVIEWER: IF R ASKS WHAT IS MEANT BY WORKING SAY: BY WORKING WE MEAN WORKING FOR PAY FOR AN EMPLOYER OR IN A FAMILY BUSINESS WHETHER OR NOT YOU ARE PAID, OR WORKING FOR YOURSELF OR BEING SELF-EMPLOYED.)

If you are not in school a year from now, what is the percent chance that you will be working for pay more than 20 hours per week?

([sex of R] = 2)

COMMENT: Check gender to see if R is female and skip accordingly.

What is the chance you will become pregnant within one year from now?

What is the percent chance that you will get someone pregnant within the next year?

The next questions concern some risks that you might face in the next year.

What is the percent chance that you will drink enough to get seriously drunk, at least once in the next year?

What is the percent chance that you will be the victim of a violent crime at least once in the next year?

What is the percent chance that you will be arrested, whether rightly or wrongly, at least once in the next year?

What is the percent chance that you will die from any cause -- crime, illness, accident, and so on, in the next year?

The next questions ask about your school and work situation at the time of your 20th birthday.

What is the percent chance that you will have received a high school diploma by the time you turn 20?

What is the percent chance you will serve time in jail or prison between now and when you turn 20?

What is the percent chance that you will become the [mother/father] of a baby sometime between now and when you turn 20?

What is the percent chance that you will die (from any cause -- crime, illness, accident, and so on) between now and when you turn 20?

Now think ahead to when you turn 30 years old.

What is the percent chance that you will have a four-year college degree by the time you turn 30?

What is the percent chance that you will be working for pay more than 20 hours per week when you turn 30?