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Title: Expectations, Realizations, and the Aging of Young Men
Resulting in 1 citation.
1. Griliches, Zvi
Expectations, Realizations, and the Aging of Young Men
Research in Labor Economics 3 (1980): 1-21.
Cohort(s): Young Men
Publisher: JAI Press, Inc.
Keyword(s): Age and Ageing; Career Patterns; Educational Aspirations/Expectations; Educational Attainment; Job Aspirations; Work History

This paper exploits the fact that educational and occupational expectations were asked in the NLS, and that by 1975 a significant fraction of this cohort had actually reached the point at which the success of their forecasts could be evaluated ex post. It was hoped that this work would indicate how good are such expectations and what they can tell us about the unmeasured aspects of the individuals. Unfortunately, the following data and sample design problems were encountered: (1) the sample turned out to be smaller than originally expected; and (2) the educational expectations question was asked only of those still in school, about one-third of the total. The major findings of this study are: (1) the quality of such expectations is not impressive.The R2 between expected and actual schooling (for those with valid expectations) was 0.47 and between expected occupation in 1966 and actual in 1975 less than 0.25; (2) even though unimpressive as far as accuracy of forecasting is concerned, these expectations were close to being rational, in the sense that it is difficult to improve on them by using variables that were known to the respondents as of 1966; and (3) constructing an alternative occupational scale and reweighting the observations made little difference to the results.
Bibliography Citation
Griliches, Zvi. "Expectations, Realizations, and the Aging of Young Men." Research in Labor Economics 3 (1980): 1-21. .