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Title: Duration Analysis of Birth Intervals and Underlying Fertility Behavior
Resulting in 1 citation.
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Neumark, David B. |
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Duration Analysis of Birth Intervals and Underlying Fertility Behavior Special Studies Paper 226. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1987 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Federal Reserve Board Keyword(s): Behavior; Childbearing; Fertility This paper studies the fertility behavior underlying estimates of duration or hazard models from NLSY data on first birth intervals, in particular the meaning of the estimated effects of exogenous demographic variables on the hazard rate. Most simply, the question is whether these effects represent variation in planned or expected birth intervals, or instead direct effects on the probability of birth. Utilization of data on timing expectations, along with the demographic variables, allows this question to be answered. The conclusion is that timing plans or expectations are the dominant empirical determinant of actual first birth durations. An implication of this, with important consequences for family policy, is that the source of high fertility among young women with certain demographic characteristics is more the result of their plans and expectations than of "mistakes" (or deviations of actual from expected timing). |
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Bibliography Citation
Neumark, David B. Duration Analysis of Birth Intervals and Underlying Fertility Behavior. Special Studies Paper 226. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1987. |