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Title: Determinants of Long-Term Unions: Who Survives the “Seven Year Itch”?
Resulting in 1 citation.
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Light, Audrey L. Omori, Yoshiaki |
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Determinants of Long-Term Unions: Who Survives the “Seven Year Itch”? Presented: Washington, DC, Population Association of America Annual Meetings, March 31-April 2, 2011 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Population Association of America Keyword(s): Cohabitation; Coresidence; Life Course; Marital Stability; Marriage Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Most studies of union formation and dissolution identify probabilities of union transitions in the next year; they do not reveal the likelihood of forming unions and maintaining them for the long-term. We use NLSY79 data to estimate a series of choice models in which never-married women decide when to cohabit or marry, cohabitors decide when to separate or marry, first-married women decide when to divorce, and women with prior unions advance through similar stages. We use the estimates to simulate women's union-related outcomes from age 18 to 42, and then predict probabilities of following long-term paths. We find that cohabitation substantially increases the probability of entering and maintaining a long-term union (defined as 8+ years) because the high chance of entry outweighs the low chance of stability. We also find that race and skill affect probabilities of long-term unions, but determinants that can be manipulated by public policy do not. |
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Bibliography Citation
Light, Audrey L. and Yoshiaki Omori. "Determinants of Long-Term Unions: Who Survives the “Seven Year Itch”?." Presented: Washington, DC, Population Association of America Annual Meetings, March 31-April 2, 2011. |