Search Results

Title: An Analysis of Long-Term Unemployment
Resulting in 1 citation.
1. Rothstein, Donna S.
An Analysis of Long-Term Unemployment
Presented: Washington, DC, Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management (APPAM) Annual Fall Research Conference, November 7-9, 2013
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management (APPAM)
Keyword(s): Modeling, Hazard/Event History/Survival/Duration; Racial Differences; Unemployment; Unemployment Duration; Wage Penalty/Career Penalty; Wages, Men

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

We don’t know what proportion of individuals enter into a long-term unemployment spell over their labor market career, not just at a fixed point in time, how long it takes to find a job after a long-term unemployment spell, or how the spell affects wages over time. This paper provides a starting point for answering these questions. It uses the employment history of men in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) to estimate the hazards for entry into and exit from long-term spells of unemployment. It then estimates the wage costs over time associated with having had a long-term unemployment spell. The analysis focuses on respondents’ employment histories from their mid 20s, after initial labor market churning occurs, until their mid to late 40s and early 50s.

In my sample of NLSY79 men, over 25 percent experience at least one long-term spell of unemployment from their mid 20s through 2009. On average, the first spell lasts over a year. Hazard estimates show that being black, having lower educational attainment, and having lower cognitive test scores are associated with increased odds of entering into a first long-term spell of unemployment in any given month. Black men also have decreased odds of ending their first long-term spell in any given month through reemployment. Having a higher cognitive test score and having worked full-time at a job prior to the long-term spell are associated with increased odds of reemployment. The wage costs of a long-term spell are quite persistent, with large wage losses found 5 or more years after the 27th week of the long-term unemployment spell.

Bibliography Citation
Rothstein, Donna S. "An Analysis of Long-Term Unemployment." Presented: Washington, DC, Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management (APPAM) Annual Fall Research Conference, November 7-9, 2013.