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Source: Risk Analysis

Resulting in 2 citations.

1.	Cooke, Roger M. Joe, Harry Chang, Bo
1.	Vine Regression with Bayes Nets: A Critical Comparison with Traditional Approaches Based on a Case Study on the Effects of Breastfeeding on IQ Risk Analysis published online (13 February 2021): DOI: 10.1111/risa.13695. Also: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13695 Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79 Publisher: Wiley Online Keyword(s): Bayesian; Breastfeeding; I.Q.; Statistical Analysis Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Regular vines (R‐vines) copulas build high dimensional joint densities from arbitrary one‐dimensional margins and (conditional) bivariate copula densities. Vine densities enable the computation of all conditional distributions, though the calculations can be numerically intensive. Saturated continuous nonparametric Bayes nets (CNPBN) are regular vines. Computing regression functions from the vine copula density is termed vine regression. The epicycles of regression--including/excluding covariates, interactions, higher order terms, multicollinearity, model fit, transformations, heteroscedasticity, bias--are dispelled. One simply computes the regressions from the vine copula density. Only the question of finding an adequate vine copula remains. Vine regression is applied to a data set from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth relating breastfeeding to IQ. The expected effects of breastfeeding on IQ depend on IQ, on the baseline level of breastfeeding, on the duration of additional breastfeeding and on the values of other covariates. A child given two weeks breastfeeding can expect to increase his/her IQ by 1.5-2 IQ points by adding 10 weeks of breastfeeding, depending on values of other covariates. A child given two years breastfeeding can expect to gain from 0.48-0.65 IQ points from 10 additional weeks. Adding 10 weeks breastfeeding to each of the 3,179 children in this data set has a net present value $50,700,000 according to the Bayes net, compared to $29,000,000 according to the linear regression.
	Bibliography Citation Cooke, Roger M., Harry Joe and Bo Chang. "Vine Regression with Bayes Nets: A Critical Comparison with Traditional Approaches Based on a Case Study on the Effects of Breastfeeding on IQ." Risk Analysis published online (13 February 2021): DOI: 10.1111/risa.13695.

2.	Galizzi, Monica Tempesti, Tommaso
2.	Workers' Risk Tolerance and Occupational Injuries Risk Analysis 35,10 (October 2015): 1858-1875. Also: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12364/abstract Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Wiley Online Keyword(s): Accidents; Cognitive Ability; Health/Health Status/SF-12 Scale; Injuries, Workplace; Noncognitive Skills; Risk Perception; Risk-Taking; Socioeconomic Status (SES) Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. This study explores the relationship between individuals' risk tolerance and occupational injuries. We analyze data from a national representative survey of U.S. workers that includes information about injuries, risk tolerance, cognitive and noncognitive attributes, and risky behaviors. We measure risk tolerance through questions regarding individuals' willingness to gamble on their lifetime income. We estimate zero-inflated count models to assess the role played by such measures on workers' recurrent injuries. We discuss some implications of our results for future research and occupational safety policies. Our results highlight the concurrent and changing role played by individual, work, and environmental factors in explaining recurrent incidents. They show that risk tolerance affects recurrent injuries, although not in the direction that proponents of the concept of proneness would expect. Our measure of risk aversion shows that individuals who are somewhat more risk tolerant have fewer recurrent injuries than those who are risk averse. But the estimated relationship is U-shaped, not monotonic and, therefore, not easy to predict. At the same time, we find that individuals' "revealed risk preferences"--specific risky behavior--are related to higher injury probabilities. Demanding working conditions, measures of socioeconomic status, health, and safety problems experienced by workers during their youth remain among the most important factors explaining the phenomena of recurrent injuries. So our results contribute also to the important debate about the relationship between health and socioeconomic status.
	Bibliography Citation Galizzi, Monica and Tommaso Tempesti. "Workers' Risk Tolerance and Occupational Injuries." Risk Analysis 35,10 (October 2015): 1858-1875.

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