Search Results

Copyright of American Journal of Epidemiology is the property of Oxford University Press / UK and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Some literature suggests that using theory-driven, multilevel frameworks to address future expectations among young adults may be a promising approach. Future expectations, or the extent to which one expects an event to actually occur, have been shown to influence goal setting and planning and thus may guide behavior. Future expectations have been linked to several psychosocial outcomes, but the literature examining its associations with behavior is limited by small, homogenous samples and cross-sectional designs. Furthermore, its measurement tends to focus on single dimensions and may be missing important components of this construct. This dissertation, therefore, seeks to improve our understanding of future expectations and its relationship with adolescent risk behavior using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97). Specifically, this research aims to 1) identify subclasses of future expectations defined b y clustering of unique combinations of expectations related to education, work, family, and delinquency, to test the associations between these subclasses and risk factors derived from an ecological model, and to determine how these classes relate to risk behaviors (delinquency, substance use, and sexual experience); 2) prospectively examine the relationship between future expectations and sexual risk behavior (number of sexual partners, inconsistent contraception use, and adolescent parenthood); and 3) determine how parental future expectations influence three risk behaviors (delinquency, substance use, and sexual risk) and school attainment, and to determine if youth future expectations mediate the proposed relationship between parental expectations and behavior. These analyses used interview data collected annually from 1997 through 2007 among approximately 3,000 youth ages 15 and older. Statistical techniques included latent class analysis, latent growth modeling, and various regression models.

Results of this dissertation support the empirical and practical importance of future expectations in understanding adolescent risk behavior. In my first chapter, latent class analysis supported the emergence of four distinct classes of future expectations. These classes were labeled the Student Expectations, Student/Delinquent Expectations, Victim Expectations, and Work/Delinquent Expectations classes according to their indicator profiles. Classes differed with respect to the sociodemographic characteristics associated with membership. Each class was also statistically associated with at least one adolescent risk behavior. In my second chapter, the prospective relationship between future expectations and sexual risk behavior was explored. Results indicated that these classes were uniquely associated with age at first biological child, number of sexual partners, and inconsistent contraception use. The Work/Delinquent Expectations class was consistently associate d with the greatest sexual risk among all outcomes when compared to the Student Expectations class. Membership in the Student/Delinquent Expectations class was associated with increased number of sexual partners and inconsistent contraception use, but not age at first biological child. The Victim Expectations class was not associated with any outcome when compared to the Student Expectations class. Lastly, the mechanism of parental influence was explored in my third chapter. Results suggest that parental expectations were strongly associated with adolescent behavior at baseline and over time; however, different parental expectations emerged as important for different behaviors and times. Furthermore, youth expectations partially mediated this relationship.

Methods. Data included 1496 young males who were interviewed annually from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. Cox regression survival analysis was used to determine the effect of paternal adolescent fatherhood on participant adolescent fatherhood.

Results. Sons of adolescent fathers were 1.8 times more likely to become adolescent fathers than were sons of older fathers, after other risk factors were accounted for. Additionally, factors from each ecological domain-individual (delinquency), family (maternal education), peer (early adolescent dating), and environment (race/ethnicity, physical risk environment)-were independent predictors of adolescent fatherhood.

Conclusions. These findings support the need for pregnancy prevention interventions specifically designed for young males who may be at high risk for continuing this cycle. Interventions that address multiple levels of risk will likely be most successful at reducing pregnancies among partners of young men.